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Chasing
for the Low End "Escape" in
Seven Stud High Low Split - Qualify
Article
by "Bullet Bob" Maxwell, 6/22/08
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Here's
a decision that comes up all the time in Stud High Low. .
You find
yourself on fifth street with two cards to go. You have four
cards to an average or "rough" low and are heads-up
against a high hand. . . .Should you fold and quit right there,
or try to escape with a low hand for a split to get your money
back? . . . . This is a typical example.
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Your
Hand |
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> Game
type - $1/$2 limit
> Fifth street, before betting
> Your bets so far - $2
> Opponent's bets so far - $2
> Folded players' bets - $2
> Total pot so far - $6*
* To keep this simple, the antes and the rake sort of cancel
each other out and are ignored. |
Your
Opponent's Hand |
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Here
is a look at an approximate profit/loss comparison between folding
and drawing.
To Fold here
on fifth street you lose your bets made so far = . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( - ) $2
To Draw and Miss will
cost bets made so far plus $2 on fifth and $2 on sixth streets
= . . .( - ) $6
To Draw and Make
Low will get you half of a $18 pot that includes
the
$6 starting pot on fifth st. plus two $2 bets, then two more on
sixth, then
two more final $2 bets. This makes an $18 total pot. Your half
will be $9.
When you deduct the $8 you invested in the hand, you have a one
dollar profit = . . . . . . . . . . $1
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When
you decide not to fold and to draw for low, it's important to
know about how often you can expect to make a low hand and how
often you can expect to miss.
Assuming
normal distribution of the unseen cards that contain "helpers" that
are the low cards that will not pair the lows that you are
holding, and "no-helpers" that are high cards and
cards of the low denominations that you already hold. . . .
You will average about one third helpers and two thirds
no-helpers. . . Two draws at the one third helpers will make a
low hand just a little more than 50% of the time. . . From this
we can conclude that in this case it is better to fold on
fifth street because
Drawing for Low will average per hand about (
- )$2.50 . . (compared to only ( - )$2 when you fold)
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So
there you have it.
Under
the common conditions used here, you are better
off folding on fifth street than chasing for the
low end split.
However,
there are other game conditions where in the long run, you
will come out ahead by drawing twice to catch an unpaired low
card for the only low hand. This is mainly where there are
two or more other players competing all the way for high. When
this happens you can split a larger pot that is mostly OPM
(other people's money). ::
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