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When it takes two perfect cards on both the turn and the river to covert an average or weak hand after the flop to a strong one, this should normally qualify as a "long shot". Also, "strong" hands are considered here to be straights and better. These are often referred to as "backdoor" hands such as a backdoor straight or flush etc.
After the flop, there are always 47 unseen cards. These will make a total of 1081 possible two card combinations that are used to make these probability comparisons.
Backdoor
Straight Draws |
|||
| You Have, In Your Five Cards After The Flop | No.Of
Two Card Combinations That Will Make Your Draw Hand |
Percent
% |
Odds
Against Approx. |
| 3 Card Straight - No Ace - ie: 4,5,6 | 48 |
4.4% |
22
to 1 |
| 3 Card Straight - With Ace - ie: A,2,3 . .Q,K,A | 16 |
1.5% |
66
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Straight - 1 Gap - No Ace - ie: 6,7,9 | 32 |
3.0% |
32
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Straight - 1 Gap - With Ace - ie: A,2,4 . .J,Q,A | 16 |
1.5% |
66
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Straight - 2 Gaps - ie: A,4,5 . .7,10,J . .7,9,J | 16 |
1.5% |
66
to 1 |
Backdoor
Flush Draws |
|||
| 3 suited cards to a Flush - ie: 6h, 8h, Qh | 45 |
4.2% |
23
to 1 |
Backdoor
Full House Draws |
|||
| One Pair to a Full House - ie: 5,5,9,10,K | 27 |
2.5% |
39
to 1 |
Backdoor
Four of a Kind Draws |
|||
| One Pair to Four of a Kind - ie: 6,10,J,6,7 | 1 |
.093% |
1080
to 1 |
Backdoor
Straight Flush Draws |
|||
| 3 Card Straight Flush - No Ace - ie: 4d,5d,6d | 3 |
.28% |
356
to 1 |
| 3 Card Straight Flush - With Ace - ie: Ah,2h,3h . .Qs,Ks,As | 1 |
.09% |
1080
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Str. Fl. - 1 Gap - No Ace - ie: 6d,7d,9d | 2 |
.18% |
539
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Str. Fl. - 1 Gap - With Ace - ie: Ah,2h,4h . Jd,Qd,Ad | 1 |
.09% |
1080
to 1 |
| 3 Cards to a Str. Fl.- 2 Gaps - ie: Ac,4c,5c .7s,10s,Js .7d,9d,Jd | 1 |
.09% |
1080
to 1 |
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