When
it takes two perfect cards on both the turn and the river to
covert an average or weak hand after the flop to a strong one,
this should normally qualify as a "long shot". Also, "strong" hands
are considered here to be straights and better. These are often
referred to as "backdoor" hands such as a backdoor
straight or flush etc.
After the
flop, there are always 47 unseen cards. These will make a total
of 1081 possible two card combinations that are used to make
these probability comparisons.
|
Backdoor
Straight Draws
|
| You
Have, In Your Five Cards After The Flop |
No.Of
Two Card
Combinations
That Will Make
Your Draw Hand
|
Percent
%
|
Odds
Against
Approx.
|
| 3 Card
Straight - No Ace - ie: 4,5,6 |
48
|
4.4%
|
22
to 1
|
| 3 Card
Straight - With Ace - ie: A,2,3 . .Q,K,A |
16
|
1.5%
|
66
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Straight - 1 Gap - No Ace - ie: 6,7,9 |
32
|
3.0%
|
32
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Straight - 1 Gap - With Ace - ie: A,2,4 . .J,Q,A |
16
|
1.5%
|
66
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Straight - 2 Gaps - ie: A,4,5 . .7,10,J . .7,9,J |
16
|
1.5%
|
66
to 1
|
| |
Backdoor
Flush Draws
|
| 3 suited
cards to a Flush - ie: 6h, 8h, Qh |
45
|
4.2%
|
23
to 1
|
| |
Backdoor
Full House Draws
|
| One
Pair to a Full House - ie: 5,5,9,10,K |
27
|
2.5%
|
39
to 1
|
| |
Backdoor
Four of a Kind Draws
|
| One
Pair to Four of a Kind - ie: 6,10,J,6,7 |
1
|
.093%
|
1080
to 1
|
| |
Backdoor
Straight Flush Draws
|
| 3 Card
Straight Flush - No Ace - ie: 4d,5d,6d |
3
|
.28%
|
356
to 1
|
| 3 Card
Straight Flush - With Ace - ie: Ah,2h,3h . .Qs,Ks,As |
1
|
.09%
|
1080
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Str. Fl. - 1 Gap - No Ace - ie: 6d,7d,9d |
2
|
.18%
|
539
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Str. Fl. - 1 Gap - With Ace - ie: Ah,2h,4h . Jd,Qd,Ad |
1
|
.09%
|
1080
to 1
|
| 3 Cards
to a Str. Fl.- 2 Gaps - ie: Ac,4c,5c .7s,10s,Js .7d,9d,Jd |
1
|
.09%
|
1080
to 1
|
|
